Yule blog
Yule Blog
''If something 'unexpected' were to happen over in the Suez canal (again!) that would make the commercial shipping lanes grind to a shuddering halt. There is an oil tanker in Yemen which might be the key to a red sea disaster and so I'll wager a jot on something like that coming to pass before Yuletide.”
September 14th
Pretty damn good shot ^^^ eh? Who else called that one?
Of course when I typed that I didn't mean just any old oil tanker, I meant one Yemeni oil tanker in particular which had made the news earlier in '23 after years of rusting away and being an oilslick waiting to happen, but what with some actual oil tankers proper now being targetted with Houthi rockets one has to wonder how how long it will be before one (more) unlucky missile strike will result in a Red Sea ecological disaster?
Most doomsday theologians who have tried to make sense of diverse clues concur that the Red Sea would be the most likely region of the world where armageddon will eventually focus itself. Of course there are no biblical propecies available from America and so of course this area would be the expected battleground, the Jews certainly believe this and with my long range prediction glasses on I can see this one coming true, too. The red sea has a lot of coastline and a lot of potential conflict giving it the scope to suck everybody in on one side or another as the great game trundles ever onwards. But imho, the main thing about Yemen's sudden threat to the globally important Red Sea shipping lanes was that it was actually a very unexpected move in the great game of WWV. Always thought of as just an insignificant pawn and a minor piece in the greater game the Houthi rebels soon realised that they couldn't hurt Israel by attacking it directly and so they have done the next best thing and hit them where it hurts. In the pocket. Until then nobody gave much thought of the Houthi as being a viable threat to Israel and so there was no provision made for any defence. Uncle Sam's immediate formation of the appallingly named 'Prosperity Guardian' task force is not going to have anywhere near enough clout to guarantee 100% protection and there is also no way they are going to play anything other than a defensive game with so many other pressing demands on them already. I read somewhere that the US generally use a $2m missile to shoot down a $2k rocket which means lots of money go round and even more demand for munitions from the warmongers when the global supply is already getting stretched with too many wars going on elsewhere.
The Red Sea shipping blockade will last for as long as the Houthi's have rockets to fire and given their sponsors this will mean that long after Gaza is reduced to a barren stretch of bloodstained rubble, the Red Sea will continue to be a global prosperity troublespot for years and years to come... possibly right up until the end of days.
Everyone else with an opinion has written a lot about the major problems of prolonged canal insecurity being the extra costs in time and money that automatically accompany the necessary detours around the southern waters and it is true that this will indeed lead to shortages and price rises around the globe. But one thing I'd like to note down here today is that what with all that shipping freight taking all these longer routes to bypass the these blocked canals, nobody is mentioning the accompnying rise in emissions this will create nor the excess carbon footprint that these behemoths of the sea will now be churning out in even greater quantities than before when the com-promises of Cop promised us a reduction.
Even when the important folk do get together to talk about the important issues that affect us all they still cannot speak with one voice. The Tower of Babal that was Cop 28 achieved absolutely fuck all except lots more Blah Blah Blah about who will have to pay for everything after the worst case scenario has occurred. The wording at the landmark Paris Cop statement apparently had the same problem with America only agreeing to sign that they agree they Should reduce emissions rather than they Shall reduce emissions. Weasel words like that show us exactly how much they can be trusted to lead the way and that they never intended to honour their previous promises , coming up with a historically pathetic way to say nothing worth the candle...again!
When the same countries then decided to talk about weather or not to demand a Gaza ceasefire it was a similar story since once again they cannot even agree on the correct wording that they were willing to commit their names to when it comes to how, exactly, the rotw will collectively call for a potential/ partial ceasefire in a collective statement which will only be ignored anyway. Israel are now on a mission from God and even if All the remaining hostages were magically freed tomorrow (and assuming the IDF don't shoot them all this time!) That will not stop them on their holy pogrom.
What this observation shows us is that mankind as a planet couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and that we are completely incapable of cooperation on any subject .As I've written elsewhere give the human race a yes or no option and they will split themselves into three equal camps over the correct answer. Our glorious leaders are now collectively showing us this same scenario in micro as a demonstration of exactly how incompetent and how powerless they actually are in the face of any impending disaster. It has taken them two months to say absolutely nothing that might upset someone whilst 20+,000 have died. None of the 2023 governments have dared to openly critisize Israel for it's atrocities but a year is a long time in politics and I predict it will be All Change for '24 in a year of great political upheaval. As far as the future goes for Gaza, well Famine is now the word the doctors are using the most, and they probably wont be the only ones saying that word what with Ethiopia reportedly now heading down the same path.
OK, battery is dying, what else have I writ in my diary since last time...
Volcano action returned to Iceland once more with a month long wait for a pretty impressive eruption as the ground tore assunder for a couple of miles before settling back down until next time. That one will run and run... Too many cyclones were the problem in Fiji whilst the earthquake action has been very high all around the Phillapine Sea. As I type, 2024 has begun as it prolly means to go on with a 7.5 quake in Japan with accompanying tsunami warnings. Ho hum, here we go again. Brazil has been battling the heatwaves this winter whilst over in East Africa (now that the long drought is finally over) too much rain has been their new problem with deluges in Tanzania, Somalia and Kenya giving the whole Eastern coast a reported 1/1000 year drenching. India has also been exceptionally wet and down under, Queensland is suffering an El Nino inspired downpour of biblical proportions. Aslo worth noting was the surf in California approaching Tsunami levels over xmas.
This years prize for the climate disaster world cup I award to Beijjing who win the prize by dint of being the most diversly affected area of our planet in 2023 as it has just recorded its coldest ever December to go alongside its previous hottest ever June making a pretty impressive cosmic unit double header. This award is dedicated to all those who think that global warming only affects high temperature extremes when in fact it is more a case of temperate imbalance and fluctuations from the norm.
The weather in England its been of the mainly very wet and very windy variety with double figures of named storms already this season and the newspapers here are now all talking about tornados like they were a normal UK occurrance. Stormy weather seems to have been the story all across Europe with Denmark and Germany coming in for special mention as is the the Ukraine with some pretty bad war affecting weather reported over in the Black Sea.
The long range predictions i'm getting for the UK weather are not sounding very good with warnings that this winters (as yet unnamed) Polar Vortex is looking like it might just split itself into two across the jet stream and so will most likely be running AMOC in the North Atlantic come January as its focal point shifts away from its usual home in North America and is instead going to bring even more bad weather to Europe.
Yippee!
2024 will be mainly remembered as a political year with lots of elections due in important positions. Alliances are going to stretch and ebb and flow as the poisoned chalices are passed around and around once more. The most likely call is that this time next year we will have both Trump and Israel Keith in charge of the collective West and the fight for power this year is going to be even more toxic than last time. Pass the popcorn.
Happy new year everyone, don't let the light go out.