changing of the guard
I felt the winds of change blowing this week. Time has ticked and a new phase has begun. I noticed it and called it as being the first stirrings of Autumn, although to mankind this date might also herald something else. In the headlines today , aug 22/25, Famine has been officially declared in the meaning that the third horseman of the apocalypse has officially entered the game. As for the Warhorse, well clearly Everyone has had enough of the Ukraine problem now and so, as perfectly predicted, this leg of the great game is now officially moving into overtime. Peace is the new War, Russia has won, Ukraine has lost and so a new map of eastern Europe needs must be drawn. The Dneipr river border has long been decided as half the new line and this river with no bridges is now the new frontier in the south, right up to the Russian controlled ZNPP. To the North drawing the new frontline will all comes down to who controls the Donbas regions which find themselves playing the endgame of 'piggy in the middle'. Where exactly to draw the line is the final problem on the war table.
The last problem to be solved by Zelensky is how to lose gracefully. He had a good idea to grab a bit of Russian Kursk to use as a bargaining chip... but he couldn't hold onto it and so has nothing much left to offer. Giving up all of the Ukrainian land that Russia demands is classed as total capitulation and is obviously not going to be popular with anyone in the west but when the enemy already control the land, you lack the means to take it back, the game is in injury time and your friends are all deserting you, what else can you do?
Well. If you recall history correctly, this special military operation began exactly one day after Russia recognised the independence of the Donbas regions. The timing of this shows cause and effectively that enforcing this statement was above all the #1 reason why they actually went boots on the ground in the first place. Freedom for the Donbas, by any means necessary! This is Russia's primary goal.
So, my thinking is... what if Ukraine Also recognised the independence of the Donbas region?
Giving it up to itself is not the same as giving it up to Russia.
Donbas would now become no man's land. An independent buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine. A cork in the Molotov! Middle ground where the coalition of the willing might keep the peace. If the Donbas were officially granted independence from Ukraine then, overnight, it's no longer Ukrainian soil any more, just like it wasn't forty years ago, meaning it's no longer Vlod's problem any more. Let the Donbassian's deal with Donbassian problems. Let them deal with Vlad, they speak the same language after all, just let it be one of peace. Europe can breathe a sigh of relief at the final whistle. Vlad can play with his new toys and be happy with his lot. Vlod and Trump can share the nobel peace prize for ingenuity and everyone can move on to more important problems... like Gaza.
No Mans Land
I have no idea how you go about forming a brand new country but I'm sure protocol exists and that everyone necessary could fast track it along in the name of peace if they really wanted to. If enough world leaders recognise Donbas as a new country in it's own right, it can have its own flag and form it's own form of leadership to do whatever the Donbassian's want them to do. In a perfect world they can then hold free and fair elections to and have a referendum asking them if they really want to become part of Russia or Ukraine ever again. They may even opt join the EU ...but not NATO, obviously. Or might Donbas rather just remain as no man's land, not let anyone tell it what to do and choose to go it alone into Ragnarok?
I suppose that's a question everyone should be asking themselves these days.